Political polls have a bad reputation for accuracy, due to the isolated and misleading manner in which the mass media often reports them. The statistical truth is that when all the final polls are averaged, that average is almost always accurate within the margin of error. It was a huge deal, and an almost impossible one, that the 2016 election polls were so off. Now we are finding out that the internal polls, which are more detailed and even more accurate, were wrong as well.
Yesterday, Politico put out a lengthy piece showing that Paul Ryan is telling his friends that he’s considering resigning from Congress. Deeply buried, more than 20 paragraphs into the story, we find the explosive revelation that even the GOP’s own internal polling predicted that Trump would lose miserably and that Republicans would lose 20 seats in the House. Political parties can frame their polls based on detailed voter data, and so tend to be very accurate.
So not only were the internal RNC polls incorrect about the presidential election, the polls were wrong all across the board. The Trump campaign cheated with Russian government hackers to rig the election, which makes it clear that the polls weren’t really wrong. Instead, the Russian hackers didn’t just steal voter data and hand it over to the evil Trump campaign. The hackers changed the voting totals.
That idea may be instinctively unbelievable for many Americans since it would mean a cartoonish act of sociopathic treason by Trump and his criminal goons. But there’s evidence that Trump-Russia really was a treasonous conspiracy. The Russian hackers would not have gone so far all year, just to stop short of rigging the vote totals on election day. The GOP’s own internal polls show that Russia changed the vote totals of not only the 2016 presidential election but also the congressional races. No wonder Republicans are so scared of the evils that the Trump-Russia treason investigation is turning up.