Democrats hold a 4% advantage in several dozen battleground House districts, a lot of which are currently held by Republicans going into November’s midterm elections, a poll released on Monday shows.
A new poll from Washington Post–Schar School of likely voters discovered that voters in 69 big battleground districts are supporting the Democratic nominee, while 46% back the Republican nominee. Out of the 69 battleground districts, 63 are GOP-held.
The poll looked at districts that on Aug. 24 were rated as “toss-ups” or as leaning toward one of the parties by Cook Political Report or that were identified by the Washington Post as competitive.
Women heavily support Democrats in such districts, with 54% in favor of that party’s candidate and 40% supporting the Republican, the poll shows.
Among men, the Republicans hold a 51-46 lead.
President Donald Trump won 48 out of the 69 districts during the 2016 presidential election. Of those 48, the poll showed that likely voters are almost evenly split, with 48% saying they support the Democrat and 47 % preferring the Republican.
In the 21 districts which Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won back in 2016, Democrats currently have a 10% advantage, 53-43.
The new poll questioned 2,672 likely voters from September 19th to October 5th. The error margin is plus or minus 2%.
Democrats have held a steady lead for months in generic congressional ballot polling. A RealClearPolitics poll average shows the Democrats with a 6.6-point lead in the generic ballot.
But Monday’s poll differs in that it gave respondents the names of major party candidates for their respective districts and then focused on the specific races.
Democrats are expecting a blue wave to regain the majority in both of the chambers of Congress.
Democrats need 23 seats in the House in order to claim the majority and they two more seats in the Senate to win control.
It is a harder climb for Democrats in the upper chamber, since the map is not nearly as favorable. Democrats will be defending 10 seats in states which Donald Trump won in 2016.