Democrats hold a 9% lead above Republicans for the House generic ballot just five weeks before the November elections, a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll showed on Monday.
45% of registered voters said they would vote for the Democrat in their congressional district, next to 36% who said that they’d support the Republican candidate. 15% remain undecided.
Democrats’ massive 9-point advantage trends with several other generic ballot surveys which show that the party in an excellent position to flip at least the 23 seats they will need to retake the House this November.
The reputable RealClearPolitics polling average has the Democrats with over a 7-point lead above Republicans on the congressional generic ballots.
Democrats also have a double-digit edge when the voters are asked about which of the parties’ candidate they would support in either Senate and governor’s races for November.
In states that have Senate races, 47% said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate, while 36% would support the Republican. And in the states with gubernatorial races, 45% of respondents support the Democratic candidate and 32% support the Republican challenger.
“We continue to show a blue edge going into the last month though the public disapproves of both parties by wide margins,” explained the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, Mark Penn.
“The voters are set for a typical congressional midterm swing against the party in the White House absent any developments here.”
The main issue for voters is currently health care, with 37% making it their top priority, the poll shows.
Democrats are seizing on improving American health care as a crucial message this cycle, including via ads that spotlight an amoral Republican-led lawsuit which seeks to overturn ObamaCare, endangering a popular provision which protects Americans with pre-existing conditions.
Another high priority for the voters is immigration, which was chosen by 33 percent of the voters. Many racist Republican candidates have, like Donald Trump, sought to take advantage of racism via promoting harsh immigration and border security policies in several top Senate and House races.
The recent Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll was an online survey using 1,228 registered voters and was conducted September 26 and 27. The breakdown for parties is 37% Democrat, 32% Republican, 29% independent and 2% other.